Firstly a quick reminder of our upcoming events:
14th September 7pm: Pre-AGM members and supporters’ meeting.
24th September 5pm GMT: Dimensions of a Dubious Submarine Deal AUKUS Webinar.
This week, US restarted its war on Iran despite munitions shortages and high-level military resignations, with new war crimes already reported.
Meanwhile, as the US’ military’s conventional strength is strained in the Persian Gulf, Pentagon officials recommend additional options for nuclear war-fighting, likely involving the acquisition of more tactical nuclear weapons intended for battlefield use.
Once more we hear echoes of Cold War thinking: the burgeoning deployment of US nuclear weapons in Europe during the 20th century was motivated by fear of the USSR’s conventional military superiority on the continent.
But far from guaranteeing security, increased US and USSR nuclear weapons presence in Europe led the world a hair’s breadth from nuclear war – avoided not because of any supposed logic of “deterrence,” but instead by pure fortune.
Today, with US conventional military capacities stretched in waging war on Iran, Pentagon leadership is likely less confident of its strength relative to its main perceived adversary, China, in the Pacific region.
Read full analysis by Arms Control Association here.
Such a realisation may be playing some role in Colby & Correll’s proposed expansion of so-called “tactical” nuclear weapons capabilities for the Pacific theatre, and some of the motivation for Australia’s hosting of US nuclear submarines as part of AUKUS.
But as much as Pentagon officials proclaim “nuclear deterrence” to ensure their interests in the Pacific, we cannot forget that the same systems that underpin “deterrence” (nuclear threat) are those that lead to accidents, miscalculations and misinterpretations of risk.
That’s what Cold War history has shown us, and it’s the path we must avoid in the 21st century.