This week there was some sound and fury about 3 of the Royal Navy’s 4 nuclear-armed submarines being simultaneously deployed.
This was first noticed by campaigners with Nukewatch, and their online briefing on the development is very insightful.
This the first time since 2022 that 3 Vanguard class submarines are simultaneously deployed, and as such rather an abnormal event.
But while some of the media reporting hailed the ‘increased operational availability’ of the nuclear weapons fleet, closer scrutiny reveals this to be optimistic.
Despite the rarity of 3 Vanguard nuclear-armed submarines being simultaneously at sea, there is likely a simple explanation: 1 of the 3 boats been on patrol for 198 days and is due to return to Faslane imminently, and another of the 3 submarines will take over the patrol.
That really leaves only 1 submarine ‘unaccounted’ for. So what could it be up to?
One possibility is participation in either the US ‘Global Thunder’ nuclear war exercise or France’s ‘Rummy’ exercise. The MoD has not confirmed or denied UK submarine participation in either exercise, though the Navy has reportedly committed carrier-launched F-35s to Global Thunder.
Another possibility is one submarine visiting the US for maintenance or testing of the Trident missiles used by the Royal Navy, which are stored at King’s Bay naval base in Georgia, USA.
As SCND have maintained for decades and the former UK Prime Minister declared earlier this year, the UK depends on a good relationship with the US to maintain its nuclear weapons system. This is because Trident is a US missile, leased to the Royal Navy with the assent of Washington.
This arrangement is of course an enormous political liability that severely compromises British sovereignty. If you are wondering why the UK can’t stop embroiling itself in disastrous US wars against the interests of its own citizens, this dependency on the US for its nuclear status is surely a foundational reason.
One further interpretation for this recent submarine news, is that the Vanguard fleet may be suddenly enjoying improved ‘operational availability.’ But if this is true, why are submarine patrols STILL running to 200 days on average, double the intended length of patrol?
Why was this improved ‘operational availability’ not employed weeks ago to relieve submariners currently 198 days on patrol, instead sending out 2 extra submarines at once, like the famous buses arriving late?
In any case, signals are sent with abnormal submarine deployments like this. This risks heightened tensions and misinterpretations between nuclear-armed states with potentially catastrophic consequences.
People are rightly appalled when the likes of Putin and Trump make barely-veiled nuclear threats. Why should we accept a slightly-more-veiled threat to destroy the northern hemisphere from our leaders, which is what Trident submarines are designed to do?
All nuclear posturing indiscriminately threatens humanity as a whole. The only way to eliminate this threat is disarmament.