Nuclear Crisis between India and Pakistan

(CND comment, Ideas for writing to India and Pakistan)

Around one million soldiers are stationed on the border between India and Pakistan. Some fighting between the two sides has already taken place and there is a real danger that this will grow into a full scale war between two nuclear armed adversaries.

China is the third nuclear-armed player in the region and has been a major rival of India. China has played a key role in arming Pakistan. It has supplied the technology to enable Pakistan to build nuclear weapons and has also supplied missiles. India has designed its own missiles, some of which have a range of 2,000 kilometres.

While each side probably has a few nuclear armed missiles, it is likely that most of their nuclear weapons in the form of bombs to be dropped from aircraft. These aircraft have been supplied by the US and Britain. Pakistan relies on F-16s supplied by the US. India has a fleet of Jaguar aircraft, some of which were built in Britain and others in India. Britain developed a nuclear-capability for the Jaguar and it is likely that India has also modified its Jaguars so they can drop nuclear bombs.

Britain's role has been two-faced. On the one hand there have been diplomatic efforts aimed at peace - on the other, Britain has supplied arms to both sides. In the past two years the UK has licenced arms sales to India of £122 million and to Pakistan of £17.5 million. Britain is also pursuing a £1 billion contract for British Aerospace to supply Hawk aircraft to India.

Full details of the nuclear weapons held by the two sides are not known. Pakistan has a facility for enriching uranium and has probably concentrated on weapons using Highly Enriched Uranium. It may have enough nuclear material for between 30 and 50 nuclear weapons. Some of the weapons detonated by Pakistan in the tests in 1998 had yields of around 5 and 10 kilotons.

India has produced weapons grade plutonium and has probably has between 30 and 35 nuclear weapons. India claimed that one of the tests in 1998 was of a thermonuclear or hydrogen bomb with a yield of 43 kilotons. However outside experts say that the yield was probably significantly lower than this.

There are two ways in which nuclear weapons might be used in this conflict. They may be used on the battlefield, particularly if one side is in a situation where its forces are faced with making a humiliating retreat. Secondly the nuclear weapons might be used in a massive attack on the other countries cities. International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW) have published a study into the effects of using a nuclear weapon against Bombay. Fatalities from a Hiroshima sized bomb could be between 160,000 and 866,000. Casualty figures would be very high because of the population density. In some areas of Bombay there are more than 100,000 people living in one square kilometer -

Further information is available at: www.fas.org and www.bullatomsci.org and www.caat.org.uk ;
Report on the effect of using a nuclear weapon - Bombing Bombay (2mb, pdf)

British CND comment

"Once you threaten to use nukes, you must be prepared to use them, as Geoff Hoon said recently. Down this road lies madness. What is required as a matter of urgency is a de-escalation of tension and international pressure on the protagonists to negotiate a peaceful settlement. The global elimination of nuclear arsenals and the renunciation of the destabilising theories behind them must be next on the agenda, as agreed under the Non-Proliferation Treaty."

Nigel Chamberlain CND Press Officer.

Ideas for writing to India and Pakistan

Please could you write, fax or email to the following:

President Musharraf of Pakistan, The President's Secretariat, Constitution Hill, Islamabad, Pakistan; fax 00-92-51-920-3938; e-mail CE@pak.gov.pk ; Foreign Minister of Pakistan fax 00-92-51-920-7217

Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee, South Block, New Delhi, 11 00 11, India; fax 0091 11 301 6857; An electronic message can be sent to his office using a form at http://pmindia.nic.in/writetous.htm

His Excellency Mr Abdul Kader Jaffer, High Commission for Pakistan, 34-36 Lowndes Square, London, SW1X 9JN; Tel 0207 664 9200 Fax 0207 664 9224

His Excellency Shri Ranendra Sen High Commission of India, India House, Aldwych, London WC2B 4NA, Tel 0207 7836 8484 Fax 0207 836 4331

Letters to India and to Pakistan cost 65p, unless you can manage a letter weighing under 10gm (probably necessary to use air mail paper), in which case it is 45p.

Points to make:

You are a long-standing campaigner against nuclear weapons;
You are deeply concerned at the horrifying possibility of military conflict between India and Pakistan. Such a conflict could escalate into a nuclear exchange, which could destroy both countries, with millions of casualties; You urge both leaders to enter discussions immediately, aimed at eliminating the risk of a nuclear exchange between the two countries.

India / Pakistan anti-nuclear movement

South Asians Against Nukes (links to other sites)
Statement by Indian Scientists against Nuclear Weapons
Movement in India for Nuclear Disarmament
A Non-Nuclear South Asia

John Ainslie, 27 May 2002