Effect of nuclear war over Kashmir

1. Pentagon estimates

US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is telling the leaders of India and Pakistan that if they use nuclear weapons it could result in 12 million deaths.

2. NRDC estimate

The Natural Resources Defence Council is a US campaigning organisation with expertise in a number of areas, including nuclear weapons. They have carried out a study on the effect of India and Pakistan using nuclear weapons in two scenarios.

In the first they looked at the effect of each side attacking five cities with a 15 kiloton nuclear weapon exploded in the air. This would result in a total of 2.8 million fatalities, plus 1.5 million severly injured. The estimates were based on the effect of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The second scenario considered a total of 24 nuclear weapons being used and all detonated on the surface. This would result in a substantial amount of nuclear fallout. 22 million people would be exposed to lethal radiation doses within the first two days of the attack. Another 8 million would receive a dose which would result in severe radiation sickness and possibly death.

3. IPPNW estimate

The International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War carried out a detailed study into the effects of one nuclear weapon exploding in Bombay. This showed that for a 15 kiloton bomb fatalities would be between 160,000 and 866,000. The higher figures would be if the attack was on a more densely populated part of the city with extensive fires resulting from the explosion. These do not include long term fatalities from cancer.

4. Other nuclear weapons effect studies

Scottish CND has carried out a study into the effect of using Trident nuclear weapons against Russia. This showed that a single 100 kiloton Trident warhead detonated in Moscow could cause 153,000 immediate fatalities. The 48 warheads on one submarine used against a range of military targets in and around Moscow could result in 3 million fatalities.

A recent NRDC study into a US attack on Russia estimated that if the attack avoided targetting cities there would still be 8 - 12 million deaths. A deliberate attack on Russian cities would result in around 50 million fatalities.

5. Nuclear stockpiles in India and Pakistan

There is no publicly available accurate information on the number of nuclear weapons in South Asia. NRDC estimate that India has 30 - 35 and Pakistan 50 - 75. Other estimates say that India has more nuclear weapons and could have more than Pakistan. It is generally assumed that India has built plutonium based weapons and Pakistan has built weapons using Highly Enriched Uranium.